Le plus grand guide pour slow and fast thinking book

Le plus grand guide pour slow and fast thinking book

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Prospect theory: This theory attempts to explain the way people choose between probabilistic alternatives that involve risk, where the probabilities of outcomes are known. Kahneman illustrates it through this graph

, is also how System 2 test a hypothesis. Contrary to the rules of philosophers of savoir, who advise testing hypotheses by trying to refute them, people (and scientists, quite often) seek data that are likely to Quand Associable with the beliefs they currently hold.

That is, laziness pépite inertia can be more powerful than bias. Procedures can also Lorsque organized in a way that dissuades pépite prevents people from acting nous-mêmes biased thoughts. A well-known example: the checklists conscience doctors and nurses put forward by Atul Gawande in his book The Checklist Manifesto.

The déplacement consists of eight lessons by Nisbett—who comes across nous-screen as the authoritative but approachable psych professor we all would like to have had—interspersed with some graphics and quizzes.

We see people everyday saying that what just happened was what they always thought would happen and they, in their overconfidence, start believing that they always knew in hindsight that such année event was probable. (see Nimbe Effect)

What you see is there is: We take pride in our exalté abilities which leads traditions to believe that we know the whole truth, no matter how fallible our source are, and not withstanding the fact that there is always another side of the picture. When we hear a story pépite année incident, we tend to accept it as a fact without considering any view dissenting or contradicting it.

Answering an Easier Demande (97). If one Énigme is Pornographique, we’ll substitute an easier one. It can Lorsque a good way to make decisions. Unless the easier Devinette is not a good substitute. I have année uneasy awareness that I do this. Especially since it often REALLY ANNOYS me when people do it to me.

Je of my favourite of Kahneman's examples comes from when he was working with Israeli flight instructors. They were convinced that shouting and swearing at trainee pilots was the best method of improving their record - experience proved it - when a pilot under performed they swore at him and nous the next attempt the trainee would ut better. Plainly shouting works. Kahneman, perhaps with a sigh, said this was simply regression to the mean.

At least with the optical errements, our slow-thinking, analytic mind—what Kahneman calls System 2—will recognize a Müller-Lyer disposition and convince itself not to trust the fast-twitch System 1’s levée. But that’s not so easy in the real world, when we’re dealing with people and situations rather than lines.

Parce que biases appear to Sinon so hardwired and inalterable, thinking fast and slow summary most of the Réunion paid to countering them hasn’t dealt with the problematic thoughts, judgments, pépite predictions themselves. Instead, it eh been devoted to changing behavior, in the form of incentives pépite “nudges.” Connaissance example, while present bias ha so crème proved intractable, employers have been able to nudge employees into contributing to retirement épure by making saving the default collection; you have to actively take steps in order to not participate.

- Priming can Sinon used to influence people. Connaissance example pictures of eyes can make people feel watched

Valid intuitions develop when éprouvé have learned to recognize familiar elements in a new situation and to act in a manner that is appropriate to it.

Nisbett justifiably asks how often in real life we need to make a judgment like the one called for in the Linda problem. I cannot think of any juste scenarios in my life. It is a bit of a logical parlor trick.

متأسفانه این فرایند عاقلانه در اوقاتی که به آن نیاز است، بسیار کم مورد استفاده قرار می‌گیرد. همه‌ی ما وقتی نزدیک به ارتکاب خطای جدی هستیم، به زنگ خطری نیاز داریم که با صدای بلند نواخته شود. اما چنین زنگ خطری موجود نیست و خطاهای ذهنی، در کل، بسیار دشوارتر از خطاهای درکی تشخیص داده می‌شوند.